My application to join the second round of the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO)

Sent to WHO September 12, 2025. No reply. 

To whom it may concern 
SAGO@who.int

Expression of interest for the SAGO-2 

Dear Sir/Ms 

I am writing to express my interest in joining the second round of the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens. 

I have over 23 years of experience of working in high-level multi-disciplinary scientific teams, including the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (I was a co-author of its conceptual framework, which discusses the relationship between ecology and infectious disease regulation), WHO, TDR, UNEP, and the IPCC. 

I have worked, essentially continuously, as a research epidemiologist since 1996, including via my MSc in epidemiology (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) and doctorate in epidemiology (Australian National University). My other qualifications include a Diploma in Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (Royal College of Physicians, 1990) and an Australian medical degree (1987). My acknowledged expertise includes One Health, planetary health, global health, ecology, and ethics. My interest in novel infections was stimulated by friendship with the first person known to have survived Lassa fever, whom I met when I was a visiting medical student at Evangel hospital, Jos, Nigeria, in 1985 
(https://www.astmh.org/blog/october-2012/astmh-remembers-penny-pinneo,-a-pioneer-in-combati). 

I was a co-editor of the journal EcoHealth from 2010 until resigning in 2013 for ethical and scientific reasons. Before then, in 2012, I coined the term “stealth” for either asymptomatic or sexual infectious-disease transmission (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23849217). I have long argued that stealth transmission is necessary, though insufficient, for a pandemic; i.e., for a global or quasi-global spread, as defined in the glossary of successive Institute of Medicine reports into Emerging Infections. 

In 2020, I was commissioned by UNEP to write a report on the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic (https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/40871;jsessionid=838B5F256041B50B86C5EA4A569C3218). Research for this convinced me that a laboratory origin was plausible and I subsequently co-led a detailed letter to The Lancet responding to Calisher et al (2020). Had this been accepted it would have been the first in a high-ranking journal to challenge the then dominant narrative. It was finally published, almost unchanged, in October 2021 (doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02019-5). 

I have misgivings about SAGO-2’s terms of reference that characterise SARS-CoV, Lassa, Marburg, Ebola, and Nipah as “high-threat”. Unless these viruses evolve stealth transmission, 2 risk can be contained by excellent barrier nursing, where possible supported by vaccination. The other viruses listed (MERS-CoV and swine and avian influenza) do manifest stealth transmission; I agree they are “high-threat”. Another high threat is the manipulation of pathogens with pandemic potential (as recognised by the Global Virome Project https://www.slideshare.net/SirTemplar/2017-0907-global-virome-project), especially if combined with secrecy, over-confidence, or conflict of interest. 

I am currently working on an invited paper that stratifies 314 (now 325, note added Dec 2025) viruses known to infect humans by their cumulative mortality and their decade of discovery. Though this paper is not yet published, it reflects my considerable expertise in the history of virology. 

I will add a highly sensitive, discerning, and knowledgeable voice to SAGO. My inclusion will also strengthen SAGO’s credibility. Although I am convinced that virology requires stronger ethical self-awareness and governance, I remain fully cognisant of all the pathways to infectious-disease outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics and look forward to the opportunity to contribute to SAGO’s mission. 

Yours sincerely 

Colin Butler 

Colin D. Butler PhD, MSc(epi), BMed, BMedSci(Hons), DTM&H 

Honorary Professor, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health and Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia 

https://researchportalplus.anu.edu.au/en/persons/colin-butler 

http://colindbutler.weebly.com/ 

http://www.bodhi-australia.com/ 

http://health-earth.weebly.com 

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2942-5294

Butler, C.D. and Higgs, K. (eds.) Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects, CABI, Wallingford, UK., Boston USA. (2nd edition)