Friday, May 15, 2015

Reflections on my five minutes in court (protesting Earth poisoning)



On March 12, 2015 I faced the magistrate in a courtroom in Sydney, at the Downing Centre. My original maximum penalty was 7 years in jail, and the NSW police charge sheet also stated that the Maules Ck coal mine (Whitehaven) would be paid at least $40,000 by me to compensate their loss from me delaying two trucks, each carrying about 40 tonnes of coal, for 50 minutes. This charge was reduced to one with a maximum penalty of two years in jail, and a maximum fine of $5,500. There was no further mention of the $40,000.

The magistrate, more familiar with drug offenders, appeared to have not heard of civil disobedience in defence of the public good, in this case avoiding dangerous, even catastrophic climate change. If she had any sympathy to the concept of civil disobedience, she was not letting on.

I did not read my planned statement (which included a mention of written warnings to coal companies issued several years ago by some of Australia's most senior climate scientists). If I had tried it would have risked extreme irritation. She seemed irritated enough! She was very business-like. I thought she was quite skilful and even compassionate towards some of the people who appeared before her, especially the drug dealers and drunken drivers who represented themselves. But I don't think she had much experience with political protesters.

In the end I was found guilty, but no sentence was recorded. This may have been helped by the three character references I had, but that was hard to tell, as it was all so quick she could only have skimmed them. She mis-read my date of birth by 20 years (younger!)

I was given a two year good behaviour bond. I was not fined, I only paid modest court costs. I am very grateful to my Environmental Defenders' Office lawyer.

Three days after my five minutes of magistrate attention, I attended the iDEA meeting, the student-run meeting of Drs for the Environment, Australia. During it, a NSW politician called Rob Stokes spoke, in defence of coal exports. He claimed that Australians need to sell coal to promote India's development. 

I wanted to tell him about the NSW police, and also to state that India does not need Australian coal; they have their own, or can buy it from Indonesia etc. The true motive for Australian coal sellers is profit, and it is immoral. Alas, the chair seemed to choose to not to give me this chance to speak. I rather think she thought my remarks might introduce unnecessary rancour at a public forum. But I think she was too deferential.

Meantime, Australia's coal frenzy deepens and worsens, and so does the likelihood of stranded assets. The Guardian has taken to calling this Australia's carbon bomb. David Pratt's new report on the illusion that 2 degrees of warming is safe, called "Recount: It's time to do the math again" makes me feel very glad I took my stand - but at the same time it's not enough. Yet, given the aggression of the state, how can I recommend what I did to others?

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Development, inequality and co-operation: reflections, including on climate change



This paper was prepared for a meeting held in New Delhi in April 2015, called “Research and education for rural development and food security to build resilient rural environments: Australian and Indian perspectives. It was organised by the Australian India council, the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, the NGO Pradan and the Ambedkar University of Delhi.

Here is the early version. I will add some links if I get time. The slides, however, are available here.

Introduction

This paper argues that, despite considerable rhetoric to the contrary, privileged populations have long undermined “development”, in several ways and scales. The degree of this erosion of development has arguably increased in recent decades, although there are countering trends, especially the spread and declining cost of communication technologies including mobile phones, the internet and now social media.

Aid has become unfashionable, and many attempts to increase fairness have instead been denigrated, with language such as the “politics of envy”. Arguments that it is in the rational self-interest of societies and indeed of the whole world to become more equal have also had little effect, despite phenomena such as the September 11 attacks and the rise of the Islamic State, which now attracts violent idealists from many countries.

Finally, this paper argues that anthropogenic climate change is a manifestation of global inequality, which, unless addressed, is likely to not only make inequality worse, but even to threaten the fabric of global civilization, in combination with other stresses that reflect aspects of “planetary overload”.

Neoliberalism and shift away from global development

In 1969 representatives of most “developed” capitalist countries participating in the Pearson Commission on International Development agreed to raise their levels of overseas aid to 0.7% of gross national product. During the height of the Cold War, these economies felt at least slightly obliged to try to minimize or reduce poverty in “Third World” nations, lest communist ideology should capture another client. At this time, the leading dogma of development economists, shared by a series of US Presidents, was that slowing population growth would favour development, including by changing the dependency ratio, that is, by lowering the proportion of dependents (children, as there were few retired people) in the economy. At least in theory, smaller families would enable more investment in their education; a lower quantity of children could be offset by a higher quality.
Yet, soon after, in part triggered by the first oil crisis, almost all high-income countries reneged on their pledge to give more aid, becoming less generous, with the exception of four small northern European economies, and very recently, the United Kingdom. In the late 1970s a resurgence of free market economics commenced, especially in English speaking economies, also affecting the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Supporters of this doctrine, most commonly known as “neoliberalism”, reversed the dominant thinking of the 1960s that development required aid, in order to supply determinants such as nutrition, education and concepts (Freire, 2006).

Adherents of neoliberalism claimed that unconstrained market forces would provide a much surer and faster route to prosperity. Remnants of aid might be justified as levers for foreign policy influence, but it was no longer seen as morally valuable, not only by high-income governments, but by most of their populations. Of course, some people and organisations remained advocates of aid, but gradually they became less influential. Books criticizing aid also emerged, supported in some cases, by corruption among aid groups. Instead of aid, supporters of neoliberalism held that populations in rich countries could continue to consume with a clear conscience about inequality and poverty, each of which was automatically to be solved by the free market.

The failure of the free market and the emergence of the 1%

The triumph of neoliberalism was deepened in the late 1980s by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rejection of Communism in Eastern Europe. Funds freed by the end of the Cold War were briefly touted as fuelling a “Peace Dividend” that could be used, in part, for poverty alleviation and development. But this did not occur. Instead, inequality continued to rise, not only between countries, but within many countries. Today, phrases such as the “top 1%” reflect growing public awareness of rising inequality.

Various forms of corruption in so called developing countries have long been scandalous (eg Mobuto in Zaire, various kleptocrats in Nigeria, Suharto in Indonesia and Thaksin in Thailand), but the accumulation of enormous wealth has now contaminated several high-income counties, including the former political leaders of Britain (Blair), the US (the Clinton family) and Italy (Berlusconi). Inevitably, wealthy leaders are inhibited from supporting policies that harm their own economic class.
This context of relentless and worsening global inequality is partly alleviated by the attainment of some the Millennium Development Goals. The target for poverty has been pronounced as successful, largely due to the reduction of extreme poverty in China, a country with a greatly reduced population growth rate. Until recently (and paradoxically, given the claimed poverty success) the target for global hunger relief was stated by the Food and Agricultural Organization as severely failing, but a revised method introduced in 2012 has greatly narrowed the gap (Butler, in press).

The key ingredients needed to promote development are not indecipherable. They include better nutrition (from conception), better treatment of infections, including parasites, better health systems, and improved sanitation and handwashing. Primary school education is also vital as are tolerable human rights, acknowledged by other, more powerful groups. Given sufficient ingredients the poor might further escape poverty through self-organising processes such as trade unions, night schools and self-help, triggering further self-reinforcing virtuous cycles. Increasingly literate parents might not only value education, but effectively agitate for improved education for their children and for better health care.

However, the delivery of these determinants on a sufficient scale is a formidable challenge. Reduction of poverty is too often seen, whether or not correct, as a threat to the privilege of more wealthy groups. Very often, higher income populations use their existing power to maintain, or even seek to increase their advantage. Similar arguments apply globally. That is, despite rhetoric to the contrary, most rich countries do not want poor populations to catch up.

But such strategies are ultimately self-defeating. Excessive inequality is not only morally repulsive, but it ferments resentment and insurrection. Our modern world not only has nuclear weapons, but is evolving towards one with perhaps ubiquitous 3 D printers, armed micro-drones and robotic surveillance. Greater inequality will undermine security and well-being, even for populations who today consider themselves impregnable.

Climate change as a case study of global inequality

The reality of anthropogenic climate change is now beyond doubt. Myriad forms of evidence support concerns that not only were hypothetical only fifty years but which could then be only poorly measured and monitored. Yet, despite overwhelming scientific support, some governments and corporations remain openly skeptical of the findings of climate science.

The scientific community is calling, almost desperately, for most fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas, tarsands) to remain unburned and underground. At the same time, cost-effective sources of renewable energy are emerging, especially solar and wind. Advocates of these technologies claim that their large-scale introduction could limit global climate change to a relatively “safe” level of no more than 2 degrees C average warming. More warming than that threatens the fabric of civilization, through cascading pathways that included conflict, famine, mass migration and economic collapse (Butler, 2014).

Slowing climate change would require an enormous restructuring of the global economy. Not only would some corporations lose vast amounts of money and power, but so would some countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia. Until very recently, the self-interest of so many powerful sectors has led to the effective suppression of action to adequately tackle climate change. But this elite consensus is now under strong attack, not only from the rising power of cleaner energy generating technologies (eg solar and wind), but also by civil society of the global middle class. China is also now an important actor, in part motivated by its rising middle class which increasingly protest at that nation’s life-expectancy reducing air pollution.

Australian corporations and politicians are at the forefront of the movement to delay the clean energy transition. They have some allies in India, although India is now showing signs of following China along the route towards cleaner energy. But it is disturbing that India is not threatening to expel GreenPeace India.

India is highly vulnerable to climate change. Agricultural models consistently forecast a reduction in its food-growing capacity. Unlike China, India lacks potentially arable land at higher latitudes where its farmers might migrate. Neighbouring Pakistan and Bangladesh face risks from reduced flow to the Indus and Brahmaputra rivers, not only from glacier melt but (in the case of the Brahmaputra) from Chinese dams. Increased instability in India’s neighbours, one of which is nuclear armed, is not in India’s national interest.

Overall, wealthy countries have been slow to act on climate change in large part because they believe (arguably incorrectly) that their own wealth insulates them from all but trivial harm. At the same time, they have been reluctant to do anything which might reduce their capacity to make money. Poor countries have been generally slow to act to tackle climate change, not only because they have limited funds, but, I would argue, because those who are relatively wealthy in poor countries not only feel similarly insulated (as in rich countries), but also lack sufficient concern for the people who are on the front line of climate change and who are vulnerable in so many ways.

Conclusion

Reducing inequality, poverty, and climate change is not only morally right, but offers hope that civilization as a whole will prosper long into the future. Elites, both in low and high-income countries, need to see that such actions are in their own self-interest. Those of us who are not in that elite, but who can see the value of these arguments, need to use our influence to try to change local, regional and national policies. It is an extraordinarily difficult path, but technology such as mobile phones, the internet and social media is assisting. The fact that the UK now exceeds its Pearson aid promise is also very encouraging. Technology and mechanization might one day reach such a level and scale that cheap labour is not needed to produce the goods and services that the rich crave.
Literacy, including of health, might allow the self-propelled spread of minimally acceptable living standards, especially if assisted by mobile phones and the internet. Children living in huts (or under platforms) next to railway lines may vanish. Conflict over inexorably diminishing resources might decline, as birth rates fall. New technology might also slow the rate of climate change.

This does sound utopian, but together we can strive towards these goals. However, the current stranglehold which elites have on policy needs to be strongly challenged. Development will not happen by itself, though its rapid growth could occur once sufficient seeds can be planted.

References

Butler C.D., editor. 2014, Climate Change and Global Health. CABI, Wallingford, UK
Freire, P. 2006, Pedagogy of the Oppressed, 30th Anniversary ed. New York: Continuum.

Poverty, demography and infectious disease: three warnings


This is the abstract for my keynote talk at a conference in March 2015 in Spain called the Impact of Environmental Changes on Infectious Diseases. 

The slides are available here. 

Generations of slash and burn neoliberal, almost laissez faire development policies, with only rhetorical nods to global conservation and equity, continue to erode not only many environmental determinants of health, but also many factors that underpin social and health development. Here are three warnings to all who will listen that we live in One World with One Health.

First, the hellish and tragic Ebola catastrophe in West Africa is rooted in abysmal heath care, poverty, health illiteracy, high fertility, low education, deforestation and, perhaps, a lack of cultural memory for it. Ebola and other exotic infections risk magnification and intrusion even to the well-being of affluent populations in wealthy countries, not only by the density of international air travel, but by increasing poverty, inequality and overloaded, often sub-optimal heath care systems in those countries.

Second, the extent of open defaecation in India has been linked to undernutrition even in middle-class Indian children with access to toilets. Nicholas Kristof,
in the New York Times, points out that infant mortality is lower for Muslims in India than for Hindus, even though Muslims are poorer, and that one reason may be that Muslim villagers are more likely to have and to use toilets.

If so, improved sanitation in India will bring co-benefits. Well-off Indians must overcome their fear of educating their oppressed.

Finally, we are experiencing Planetary Overload, manifest not only as climate change, but the depletion of many other ecological and environmental underpinnings of human affluence. Adverse consequences to global nutrition are already evident (e.g. implied by persistently elevated global food prices). Large-scale population immunity is at risk.

The Black Death in Europe (1348-1350 in London) has been speculatively linked to the Great European Famine, which occurred about a generation earlier (1315-1322).  The analysis in this paper finds otherwise but in my opinion the question is far from resolved.


We should not be complacent about this century. We should not be deluded that “walls and moats” are our best defence, nor be obsessed with the alleged human population health risk of avian influenza. Instead, health workers must lobby to reverse many trends; a fairer world is the only safe and sustainable escape from our peril. Re-thinking and deeper thinking is also required by many related disciplines that also underpin population health.

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Injustice and conflict in the Anthropocene




The Anthropocene is accelerating towards an eco-social tipping point beyond which lies either recovery or civilizational collapse. Environmental and other forms of injustice are no longer local, and no longer restricted to ethnic and religious minorities, together with the economically vulnerable. Though modern and future injustice still particularly affects these groups, the descendants of people who today lead comfortable, reasonably secure lives as part of the global middle class (or second “claste”) are vulnerable to a constellation of cascading, interlinked, and potentially catastrophic phenomena, unfolding during this century.

The attacks on the US on September 11, 2001 are, so far, the most prominent events in a “War on Terror” which today appears endless. This “War” is related not only to the increasing proximity of planetary boundaries but to global policies which either ignore or deny the significance of their closeness. In turn, recognition of these issues is slowed by numerous social factors, including multi-scalar inequality, high population growth in low-income settings (further prolonging, or even deepening poverty traps and inequality) and a pervasive lack of sufficient “biosensitivity”. In particular, too many economists naively believe that different forms of capital are more or less fully substitutable.

Ongoing, piecemeal disintegration of the high quality, quasi-global civilization that once appeared in reach (long promised by adherents of eco-socially juvenile policies) towards an “enclave” world that in some ways mimics the Dark Ages should not be dismissed as an absurd future, given recent trends including of conflict. The war in Syria is arguably related to a drying climate, worsened by poor governance. It has in turn fuelled a spreading Islamist insurgency, powered not only by the policies of nominally Christian governments but by a steady inflow of international youth, motivated by what seems to many of them to be hypocrisy. (Missiles fired from a drone over Pakistan controlled by an operatorin Colorado can also be interpreted as acts of terror.)

Debates over the fine details of pathways to conflict have distracted policy makers (and many academics) from recognition of their major underlying eco-social drivers, including of “terrorism”. Some social factors are recognized, but environmental and ecological drivers (other than, partly, oil) are not; and the interconnections and feedbacks even less so. This leads to piecemeal, ultimately fruitless attempts to suppress terrorism rather than to promote the factors which will instead lead to its pacification. Recognition of such factors is urgently required if we are to avoid collapse.

This abstract was rejected in April 2015 by the Canberra Conference on Earth System Governance. Not sure why - was my language too frank? Nonetheless,  senior politicians (eg Senator John Kerry) are increasingly recognising links between drought and conflict.  We also recently published a paper called Climate change, conflict and health in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.



Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Barnaby Joyce and the spreading erosion of democracy


An article called "Barnaby Joyce's Pilliga pillage" alleges but cannot prove a form of insider trading - it shows very close links between the former federal politician John Anderson, current Federal politician Barnaby Joyce and the fossil fuel company Eastern Star Gas. It shows willingness by then Senator Joyce and his wife to invest a lot of money (over A$ 0.5 million) in land that even Joyce admitted was poor for farming. Almost certainly Joyce's true motivation was speculation - nothing illegal there in our capitalist economy.

But fast forward a few years. This week Joyce seemed genuinely outraged in Federal Parliament at the insider-trading fuelled behaviour of Ian MacDonald, the corrupt NSW politician, as shown by Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC), whereas any corruption by Joyce and Anderson has to date not been proven.


If I were a jury member, in an imaginary future court, looking at the evidence now on the public record I would conclude Joyce is also guilty of insider trading about his Pillaga purchase. Could Joyce's
vehemence towards MacDonald be in part because Joyce knows he is being hypocritical, but cannot admit that even to himself, let alone his farming constituents on the fertile Liverpool plains? Joyce could just be a good actor, but I thought his outburst was unusually intense, self-revealing in a way that he will come to regret.

Extending this analysis further, I'd say Joyce's chief ambition is to care for his own interest - he knows farmers in his constituency are upset about the coal mine and he knows it will hurt his career to be seen supporting a Chinese-owned coal mine in the Liverpool Plains. But above that, I would say, Joyce is agnostic; he doesn't really care about mining, he doesn't really care about farming; he cares about himself. (Nor does he care about climate change.) He's a bit like a piece of flour being shaped into a kind of pasta - Joyce will go (and say and do) wherever and whatever external forces take him, with no principle or consistency whatsoever. And with no deep thought, either.


Joyce's behaviour is symptomatic of a wider failure of democracy 


If this analysis is partly right we can see how at home Joyce must feel in the Abbott government - how he has risen this far. In fact he seems tailor-made for the current Federal parliament, so devoid of respect and observance for international law or for transparency. 

But, what can we do? It could seem like I have seen a failure of democracy unfolding over my life. But actually, it was always there. What I have really seen is the extension of democracy's failure. When I was young, a white, non-Aboriginal Australian born here (as I was) seemed fairly well looked after. It was others, such as Aboriginals, dark-skinned would-be migrants, and people in the Third World for whom the narrow version of democracy that then operated in Australia (in the very early 1970s) did not apply for. Democracy then did exclude, however, people just a little older than me who faced conscription to fight in what was clearly an unjust war in Vietnam. Today, however, that substantial exclusion from fairness also embraces people like me.

ICAC, people like Gillian Triggs and what passes for a free press can - and do - try to slow this takeover. I recently was arrested for trying to oppose the fossil fuel juggernaut. But I really feel that this gesture is nowhere near enough. I went to hear Bob Massie last night, discussing how civil society can phase out coal, just as horses for transport have largely gone from his native Boston. Importantly, his tour gives thought to alternative livelihoods for former fossil fuel workers.

We have to keep on trying.