Submitted to a competition organised by the British Academy, December 2024. https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/international/call-for-discussion-papers-global-disorder/
I was unsuccessful, but will try again, in March 2025.
The limit was one page.
Today’s geopolitical conditions are ominous and, to many appear chaotic. However, current global disorder has not evolved by chance; nor is it surprising. Instead, it is consistent with pathways forecast by The Limits to Growth study published in 1972, were (as has occurred) the world to broadly follow “business as usual” policies.1-3 Although warnings, including of “overshoot”4 were initially taken seriously, the rejection of Jimmy Carter’s second US presidential term initiated 45 years (and counting) of squandered opportunities. In this period, instead of prudence and reform, dominant policy makers mistook a temporary abundance of cheap energy from fossil fuels as foreshadowing an indefinite cornucopia, such as was claimed to be humanity’s destiny by Julian Simon and his followers.5,6 The end of the Cold War led to additional missed opportunities: Western exceptionalism instigated the catastrophic invasion of Iraq; more recently, the mooted expansion of NATO added additional stimulus to the plans for the Russian invasions of Ukraine.7
Many academics, both in the North and South, were rewarded, cajoled and taught to believe that the approach to, and – now – the exceedance of planetary eco-social boundaries (including a safe concentration of greenhouse gases), could be done with impunity – if not indefinitely, then for at least for another generation. While an academic and social countermovement persisted, it was marginalised, divided and weakened, including by self-censorship, optimism bias;8-10and funders loyal to the fossil fuel dominated status quo.11 Effective eco-social policies have instead been replaced by slogans such as “net zero”,12 the “Paris agreement” and the Sustainable Development “Goals”.
These cornucopian dreams also generated and legitimised laissez faire approaches to population policy6,13,14 in many parts of the global South, thus depressing wages to maximise resource consumption by a large global consumer class,15while fuelling under-employment,16 entrenching poverty,17 worsening conflict,18 chronic food aid dependency19 and, occasionally, the stimulation of organised violence to directly challenge the West.20 These policies are, also, a major underlying cause for the desperation of millions of people who strive to enter the global North, either illegally or as asylum seekers.21 In response, countries in the North and in some parts of the global South (especially in “stepping stone” locations) have adopted Hardinian “lifeboat ethics”, effectively dehumanising hundreds of millions of people.22
Homo sapiens is an animal species that requires and consumes voluminous daily resources, the supply of which requires a functioning civilization;3 this is increasingly problematic at the global scale. Humans remain, and always will remain, governed by natural laws that also generate evolution, scarcity and conflict.23
In the West, generations of cornucopian thinking, adopted by Right, Centrist, Leftist (and, to a lesser extent, Green) political parties have now spawned many “populist” alternatives. Support for these alternatives has been fuelled by symptoms of overshoot,24 including conflict, inflation, rising insurance costs (due in part to climate change25), and to unwanted actual, attempted and perceived future migration from the global South to the global North.21 The election of such parties – whose misdiagnosis of root causes is even more egregious than those who they threaten to replace, or in some cases, have replaced – constitutes a reinforcing “eco-social” feedback, complementing and accelerating numerous identified positive physical feedbacks in the Earth system; a form of “entrapment”.26-9
Chinese civilization, even though a leader in the energy transformation and less influenced by cornucopian thinking may also be overwhelmed by its own crises, just beyond the near-time horizon. Solutions to these formidable problems require explicit acknowledgement that polycrises are related to limits to growth, both environmental and social.13 This requires more truth-telling than currently seems plausible. However, if politicians currently lack this courage, then, at least let some of us display it.
References
1. Meadows, D., Meadows, D., Randers, J., Behrens III, W. (1972) The Limits to Growth. New York, New York: Universe Books.
2. Butler, C.D. (2017) Limits to growth, planetary boundaries, and planetary health Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability; 25:59-65; doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2017.08.002.
3. Butler, C.D. (2024) Bioethics, climate change and civilization. Journal of Climate Change and Health; 8:100329; doi: 10.1016/j.joclim.2024.100329
4. Catton, W.R. (1980) Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.
5. Simon, J. (1981) The Ultimate Resource. Oxford: Martin Robertson.
6. National Research Council 1986. Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions, Washington DC, National Academy of Sciences Press.
7. Paternoster, T. (2024) Angela Merkel delayed Ukraine's NATO bid over Russia fears, memoir reveals Euro News;https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/11/21/angela-merkel-delayed-ukraines-nato-bid-over-russia-fears-memoir-reveals (accessed 2/12/24)
8. Butler, C.D. (2005) Peering into the fog: ecologic change, human affairs and the future. EcoHealth;2:17-21; doi: 10.1007/s10393-004-0090-x
9. Hansen, J. (2007) Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environmental Research Letters; 2(024002); doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002
10. Butler, C.D., Bowles, D.C., Hanigan, I.C., Harmer, A. and Potter. J.D. (2024). The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: competing interests and optimism bias. Lancet 404: 1196-7; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01491-0
11. Butler, C.D. (2019) Philanthrocapitalism: promoting global health but failing planetary health. Challenges, 10, 24; doi: 10.3390/challe10010024
12. Dyke, J., Watson, R. & Knorr, W. (2024) The overshoot myth: you can’t keep burning fossil fuels and expect scientists of the future to get us back to 1.5°C. https://theconversation.com/the-overshoot-myth-you-cant-keep-burning-fossil-fuels-and-expect-scientists-of-the-future-to-get-us-back-to-1-5-c-230814; accessed 2/12/24
13. Butler, C.D. (2024) Population, neoliberalism and "human carrying capacity". In: Butler, C.D., Higgs, K., eds. Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK., Boston USA: CABI: 113-24; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.00
14. Butler, C.D. (2024) Sexual and reproductive health and rights: The relevance of family planning In: Butler, C.D., Higgs, K., eds. Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK., Boston USA: CABI: 125-41; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.0010
15. Daly, H. (2022) Reflections on Population. Great Transition Initiative https://greattransition.org/images/Population-Daly.pdf; accessed 02/12/24
16. Robinson, J. (1966) Preface. Essay on Marxian Economics. 2nd ed. London: MacMillan Press:6-21.
17. King, M. (1990) Health is a sustainable state. Lancet, 336, 664-7; doi: 10.1016/0140-6736(90)92156-C
18. Butler, C.D., Braidwood, M. and Bowles, D.C. (2024). Climate change, conflict, complexity, and health. In: Butler, C.D. & Higgs, K. (eds.) Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK: CABI. pp. 304-15; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.00
19. Butler, C.D. (2024) Famine, hunger, food prices and climate change. In: Butler, C.D. & Higgs, K. (eds.) Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK., Boston USA: CABI; pp. 270-85; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.00.
20. Butler, C.D. (2001) A world war against terrorism. Lancet, 358, 1366; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(01)06424-8
21. Butler, C.D., Bowles, D.C. (2024) Climate change, migration and health. In: Butler, C.D., Higgs, K., eds. Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK: CABI. pp. 286-303; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.0023
22. Hardin, G. (1974) Living on a lifeboat. BioScience 1974;24:561–8; doi: 10.2307/1296629
23. Darwin, C. and Wallace, A. (1858) On the tendency of species to form varieties; and on the perpetuation of varieties and species by natural means of selection. Journal of the Proceedings of the Linnean Society of London. Zoology, 3,45-62; doi: 10.1111/j.1096-3642.1858.tb02500.x
24. Rees, W.E. (2023) The human ecology of overshoot: Why a major “population correction” is inevitable. World; 4: 509-27; doi: 10.3390/world4030032
25. Gupta, A. and Venkataraman, S. (2024) Insurance and climate change. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 67, 101412; doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101412
26. Ripple, W.J., Wolf, C., Lenton, T.M., Gregg, J.W., Natali, S.M., Duffy, P.B., Rockström, J. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2023) Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate action. One Earth, 6, 86-91; doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.01.004
27. Laybourn, L., Evans, J. & Dyke, J. (2023) Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition. Earth System Dynamics 14, 1171–1182; doi: 10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023
28. Zenios, S.A. (2024) The climate-sovereign debt doom loop: what does the literature suggest? Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 67, 101414, doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101414
29. Butler, C.D. (2000) Entrapment: global ecological and/or local demographic? Reflections upon reading the BMJ's "six billion day" special issue. Ecosystem Health, 6, 171-180, doi: 10.1046/j.1526-0992.2000.006003171.x
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Honorary Professor Colin D Butler (Australian National University, Canberra, Australia) is the author/editor of almost 300 scholarly articles, books, chapters and miscellanea, e.g. book reviews, 205 as first or sole author/editor. His edited or co-edited books include Climate Change and Human Health (CABI, 2014; 2024). His published work, since 1991, has focussed on the interaction of human well-being and adverse environmental change. From 2002-05 he was a co-ordinating lead author for the scenarios working group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, in which role he focussed on future human well-being. Educated in Australia and the UK, his formal academic qualifications include in medicine, medical science, tropical medicine, epidemiology (MSc, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 1997) and public health (PhD, Australian National University, 2002). He has contributed to five international scientific assessments, including for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Environmental Programme. He is the leading scholar, based in health, arguing that Limits to Growth are real, proximate, with suppressed implications.
His prizes include: (i) Tony McMichael Public Health Ecology and Environment Award, (Public Health Association of Australia, 2018); (ii) “One of a 100 doctors for the planet” (French Environmental Health Association, 2009) and (iii) Borrie Prize (Australian Population Association, 2002).
