Increasing global disorder: a sign of approaching eco-social limits

Submitted to a competition organised by the British Academy, December 2024. https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/international/call-for-discussion-papers-global-disorder/

I was unsuccessful, but will try again, in March 2025. 

The limit was one page.

Today’s geopolitical conditions are ominous and, to many appear chaotic. However, current global disorder has not evolved by chance; nor is it surprising. Instead, it is consistent with pathways forecast by The Limits to Growth study published in 1972, were (as has occurred) the world to broadly follow “business as usual” policies.^1-3 Although warnings, including of “overshoot”⁴ were initially taken seriously, the rejection of Jimmy Carter’s second US presidential term initiated 45 years (and counting) of squandered opportunities. In this period, instead of prudence and reform, dominant policy makers mistook a temporary abundance of cheap energy from fossil fuels as foreshadowing an indefinite cornucopia, such as was claimed to be humanity’s destiny by Julian Simon and his followers.^5,6 The end of the Cold War led to additional missed opportunities: Western exceptionalism instigated the catastrophic invasion of Iraq; more recently, the mooted expansion of NATO added additional stimulus to the plans for the Russian invasions of Ukraine.⁷

Many academics, both in the North and South, were rewarded, cajoled and taught to believe that the approach to, and – now – the exceedance of planetary eco-social boundaries (including a safe concentration of greenhouse gases), could be done with impunity – if not indefinitely, then for at least for another generation. While an academic and social countermovement persisted, it was marginalised, divided and weakened, including by self-censorship, optimism bias;^8-10and funders loyal to the fossil fuel dominated status quo.¹¹ Effective eco-social policies have instead been replaced by slogans such as “net zero”,¹² the “Paris agreement” and the Sustainable Development “Goals”. 

These cornucopian dreams also generated and legitimised laissez faire approaches to population policy^6,13,14 in many parts of the global South, thus depressing wages to maximise resource consumption by a large global consumer class,¹⁵while fuelling under-employment,¹⁶ entrenching poverty,¹⁷ worsening conflict,¹⁸ chronic food aid dependency¹⁹ and, occasionally, the stimulation of organised violence to directly challenge the West.²⁰ These policies are, also, a major underlying cause for the desperation of millions of people who strive to enter the global North, either illegally or as asylum seekers.²¹ In response, countries in the North and in some parts of the global South (especially in “stepping stone” locations) have adopted Hardinian “lifeboat ethics”, effectively dehumanising hundreds of millions of people.²²

Homo sapiens is an animal species that requires and consumes voluminous daily resources, the supply of which requires a functioning civilization;³ this is increasingly problematic at the global scale. Humans remain, and always will remain, governed by natural laws that also generate evolution, scarcity and conflict.²³

In the West, generations of cornucopian thinking, adopted by Right, Centrist, Leftist (and, to a lesser extent, Green) political parties have now spawned many “populist” alternatives. Support for these alternatives has been fuelled by symptoms of overshoot,²⁴ including conflict, inflation, rising insurance costs (due in part to climate change²⁵), and to unwanted actual, attempted and perceived future migration from the global South to the global North.²¹ The election of such parties – whose misdiagnosis of root causes is even more egregious than those who they threaten to replace, or in some cases, have replaced – constitutes a reinforcing “eco-social” feedback, complementing and accelerating numerous identified positive physical feedbacks in the Earth system; a form of “entrapment”.^26-9

Chinese civilization, even though a leader in the energy transformation and less influenced by cornucopian thinking may also be overwhelmed by its own crises, just beyond the near-time horizon. Solutions to these formidable problems require explicit acknowledgement that polycrises are related to limits to growth, both environmental and social.¹³ This requires more truth-telling than currently seems plausible. However, if politicians currently lack this courage, then, at least let some of us display it.

References 

1. Meadows, D., Meadows, D., Randers, J., Behrens III, W. (1972) The Limits to Growth. New York, New York: Universe Books.

2. Butler, C.D. (2017) Limits to growth, planetary boundaries, and planetary health Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability; 25:59-65; doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2017.08.002.

3. Butler, C.D. (2024) Bioethics, climate change and civilization. Journal of Climate Change and Health; 8:100329; doi: 10.1016/j.joclim.2024.100329 

4.  Catton, W.R. (1980) Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.

5.  Simon, J. (1981) The Ultimate Resource. Oxford: Martin Robertson.

6. National Research Council 1986. Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions, Washington DC, National Academy of Sciences Press.

7. Paternoster, T. (2024) Angela Merkel delayed Ukraine's NATO bid over Russia fears, memoir reveals Euro News;https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/11/21/angela-merkel-delayed-ukraines-nato-bid-over-russia-fears-memoir-reveals (accessed 2/12/24)

8. Butler, C.D. (2005) Peering into the fog: ecologic change, human affairs and the future. EcoHealth;2:17-21; doi: 10.1007/s10393-004-0090-x

9. Hansen, J. (2007) Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environmental Research Letters; 2(024002); doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002

10.  Butler, C.D., Bowles, D.C., Hanigan, I.C., Harmer, A. and Potter. J.D. (2024). The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: competing interests and optimism bias. Lancet 404: 1196-7; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01491-0

11. Butler, C.D. (2019) Philanthrocapitalism: promoting global health but failing planetary health. Challenges, 10, 24; doi: 10.3390/challe10010024

12. Dyke, J., Watson, R. & Knorr, W. (2024) The overshoot myth: you can’t keep burning fossil fuels and expect scientists of the future to get us back to 1.5°C. https://theconversation.com/the-overshoot-myth-you-cant-keep-burning-fossil-fuels-and-expect-scientists-of-the-future-to-get-us-back-to-1-5-c-230814; accessed 2/12/24

13. Butler, C.D. (2024) Population, neoliberalism and "human carrying capacity". In: Butler, C.D., Higgs, K., eds. Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK., Boston USA: CABI: 113-24; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.00

14. Butler, C.D. (2024) Sexual and reproductive health and rights: The relevance of family planning In: Butler, C.D., Higgs, K., eds. Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK., Boston USA: CABI: 125-41; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.0010

15. Daly, H. (2022) Reflections on Population. Great Transition Initiative https://greattransition.org/images/Population-Daly.pdf; accessed 02/12/24

16. Robinson, J. (1966) Preface. Essay on Marxian Economics. 2nd ed. London: MacMillan Press:6-21.

17. King, M. (1990) Health is a sustainable state. Lancet, 336, 664-7; doi: 10.1016/0140-6736(90)92156-C

18. Butler, C.D., Braidwood, M. and Bowles, D.C. (2024). Climate change, conflict, complexity, and health. In: Butler, C.D. & Higgs, K. (eds.) Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK: CABI. pp. 304-15; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.00

19. Butler, C.D. (2024) Famine, hunger, food prices and climate change. In: Butler, C.D. & Higgs, K. (eds.) Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK., Boston USA: CABI; pp. 270-85; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.00.

20. Butler, C.D. (2001) A world war against terrorism. Lancet, 358, 1366; doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(01)06424-8

21. Butler, C.D., Bowles, D.C. (2024) Climate change, migration and health. In: Butler, C.D., Higgs, K., eds. Climate Change and Global Health: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Effects. Second ed. Wallingford, UK: CABI. pp. 286-303; doi: 10.1079/9781800620025.0023

22. Hardin, G. (1974) Living on a lifeboat. BioScience 1974;24:561–8; doi: 10.2307/1296629

23. Darwin, C. and Wallace, A. (1858) On the tendency of species to form varieties; and on the perpetuation of varieties and species by natural means of selection. Journal of the Proceedings of the Linnean Society of London. Zoology, 3,45-62; doi: 10.1111/j.1096-3642.1858.tb02500.x

24. Rees, W.E. (2023) The human ecology of overshoot: Why a major “population correction” is inevitable. World; 4: 509-27; doi: 10.3390/world4030032

25. Gupta, A. and Venkataraman, S. (2024) Insurance and climate change. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 67, 101412; doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101412

26. Ripple, W.J., Wolf, C., Lenton, T.M., Gregg, J.W., Natali, S.M., Duffy, P.B., Rockström, J. and Schellnhuber, H.J. (2023) Many risky feedback loops amplify the need for climate action. One Earth, 6, 86-91; doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.01.004

27. Laybourn, L., Evans, J. & Dyke, J. (2023) Derailment risk: A systems analysis that identifies risks which could derail the sustainability transition. Earth System Dynamics 14, 1171–1182; doi: 10.5194/esd-14-1171-2023

28.  Zenios, S.A. (2024) The climate-sovereign debt doom loop: what does the literature suggest? Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 67, 101414, doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101414

29. Butler, C.D. (2000) Entrapment: global ecological and/or local demographic? Reflections upon reading the BMJ's "six billion day" special issue. Ecosystem Health, 6, 171-180, doi: 10.1046/j.1526-0992.2000.006003171.x

*******

Honorary Professor Colin D Butler (Australian National University, Canberra, Australia) is the author/editor of almost 300 scholarly articles, books, chapters and miscellanea, e.g. book reviews, 205 as first or sole author/editor. His edited or co-edited books include Climate Change and Human Health (CABI, 2014; 2024). His published work, since 1991, has focussed on the interaction of human well-being and adverse environmental change. From 2002-05 he was a co-ordinating lead author for the scenarios working group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, in which role he focussed on future human well-being. Educated in Australia and the UK, his formal academic qualifications include in medicine, medical science, tropical medicine, epidemiology (MSc, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 1997) and public health (PhD, Australian National University, 2002). He has contributed to five international scientific assessments, including for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Environmental Programme. He is the leading scholar, based in health, arguing that Limits to Growth are real, proximate, with suppressed implications.

His prizes include: (i) Tony McMichael Public Health Ecology and Environment Award, (Public Health Association of Australia, 2018); (ii) “One of a 100 doctors for the planet” (French Environmental Health Association, 2009) and (iii) Borrie Prize (Australian Population Association, 2002).

 

The Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) and its bias concerning the origin of SARS-Co-V-2

On October 17, 2023 I submitted an adapted version of the letter below to the Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) concerning the origin of SARS-Co-V-2. Notes in [square brackets] have been added, for those not familiar with the ABC, and Australia more broadly. Most of the links have also been added. Parts of the text have been slightly expanded.

Dear Sir/Ms

I listened and read, with dismay, to the talk and transcript by journalist Ella Finkel [a science journalist who is the partner of Alan Finkel, a former Australian chief scientist whose original scientific training was electrical engineering], concerning the origin of SARS-CoV-2. This was first broadcast on October 14, 2023.

In summary, The Science Show [Australia's most prestigious and durable radio programme for science] has presented a biased version of events, worsened by the editorialising of Robyn Williams [the show's host since 1975] that "her sources are impeccable. .. Norman Swan [the presenter of a companion ABC programme called The Health Report] has read her summing-up and says it's spot on."

It is far too soon to conclude the origin of COVID-19

There are numerous remarks made by Ms Finkel which suggest the debate is far more settled than it actually is. My specific criticism of some of her comments are detailed in the two twitter threads (one of 11, the other of 4 parts). There are numerous points that I have discussed in these threads; there are several more which (at least for now) I have not yet responded to there. I cannot – and do not seek – to do justice to them here, in 1500 words or less [the limit for formal complaints to the ABC].

Two of my own peer reviewed publications are also relevant, as well as an unusually long (c1240 word, 32 refs) letter published in the Lancet in 2021, which I was substantially responsible for (these listed after my signature, below, together with three other recent, relevant publications): 

 

The ABC should stop trying to undermine scientific debate

 

Robyn Williams introduced Ella Finkel by reminding the audience of a plea by Professor Jagadish [a physicist], the current president of the Australian Academy of Science, to "stop undermining our scientists".

 

My plea to journalists is "stop trying to undermine scientific debate".

 

Comparing the SARS-Co-V-2 debate with that re the origin and prevention of puerperal fever  

 

An analogy for the current dispute concerning the origin of SARS-Co-V-2 is to consider an imaginary journalistic report on the debate concerning the transmission of puerperal (post-partum or “childbed”) fever, written in about 1855, while the dispute still raged. (This burned for about 25 years in the mid-19th century, though its origins are much earlier.) 

 

In this imaginary comparison the journalist, well connected to the scientific establishment [as is Ella Finkel] primarily relies for sources on "the old guard" - those obstetricians - always prestigious - who found numerous reasons to reject (and sometimes belittle) the revolutionary - and unsettling - claims by both Dr Oliver Wendell Holmes, and - later, in Europe - Dr Ignaz Semmelweis and his small number of supporters (see below ** for an example). In that case the “impeccable” sources were, for many years, wrong. This example is widely known, not only to medical historians but even to some modern medical students; I’m sure Robyn William and Norman Swan have each long been aware of this. The vanity and bias of the “authorities”, in the case of puerperal fever, delayed the adoption of measures that would have saved the premature deaths of many thousands of women, and the grief of bereaved partners and children.

 

The insights of Semmelweis and others (i.e. that rigorous hygiene after obstetricians leave the autopsy room before helping to deliver a baby would reduce the risk of the post-partum fever, often fatal in a pre-antibiotic era) are now taken for granted. It may be difficult for us to comprehend that these insights were scoffed at, perhaps for two decades, by most "experts", and regarded with impatience, scepticism, hostility and incredulity.

 

The reticence and provincial background of Semmelweis (whose native tongue was a German dialect) added to the hostility he and his findings encountered. (In the US, Oliver Wendell Holmes - later famous primarily for his literary powers - advanced a similar theory, preceding Semmelweis - though with less evidence. He was also attacked, but perhaps with less vehemence.) There are some parallels here with the lab leak theory for COVID-19, in that some of its leading proponents have – currently - less distinguished scientific “pedigrees” compared to Prof. Eddie Holmes, whom we are told (by Ella Finkel) is the recipient of “the Croonian medal, the same one Howard Florey won for developing penicillin”. (Even so, Semmelweis achieved great scientific fame after his premature death, aged 47.)

 

Several eminent scientists still think a laboratory leak is plausible

 

Nonetheless, a growing number of scientists, some of them distinguished, do treat the laboratory origin seriously. Among them are several Australians, including Emeritus Prof. Adrian Gibbs (https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/12911), Prof. Peter Collignon AM (https://medicalschool.anu.edu.au/people/academic-honorary/professor-peter-collignon-am) and Prof Raina MacIntyre (https://research.unsw.edu.au/people/professor-raina-macintyre).

 

Prof Wendy Hoy AO (https://researchers.uq.edu.au/researcher/1145) has called for further clarity and investigation concerning many aspects related to COVID19, including the origin.

 

I can’t speak for these others but for myself I emphatically state that I regard the origin of SARS-Co-V-2 as uncertain. The opacity of the publicly available Chinese data, and their lack of co-operation, bedevil a firm conclusion (either way). Most of the evidence advanced by Ella Finkel is tenuous – and, contrary to her assertion that “the case for a natural origin grows stronger” I would say that it grows weaker. She also asserts that this is “because it relies on the convergence of different lines of scientific evidence, most of it published in top journals like Science and Nature.”

 

There is no doubt that “top” journals including Science, Nature and The Lancet have published articles (and, in the case of Science, at least one editorial, as well as at least one “puff piece” about one of the key actors in the debate) in support of the natural origin hypothesis; nevertheless there is a growing number of high quality papers in lesser ranked journals; eg "Association between SARS-CoV-2 and metagenomic content of samples from the Huanan Seafood Market" that provide a counter view.

 

One of the key “lines of evidence” that Ella Finkel refers to is a paper by Jonathan Pekar et al. On October 13, 2023 (in the US) – i.e. one day before the Science Show programme went to air - an erratum was published for this paper. The paper has not yet been retracted, but this is a possibility, according to the person who appears to have first identified the error (see https://twitter.com/nizzaneela/status/1686105717135097862).

 

"Smearing" the character of scientists

 

I return to my key point: there is a debate, it is ongoing. The debate is of vital importance. Ella Finkel claims that the lab-leak case relies in part on “smearing the character of scientists”. I agree smearing has occurred – and this may play a role in the now dominant public perception (at least in the US) that SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin – however she, Robyn Williams, Norman Swan (and the ABC more broadly) must surely accept that issues such as truthfulness, conflicts of interest and their declaration (or their disguise) are of vital importance. The exploration of these issues need not be “smearing”. Ella Finkel did not make this distinction.

 

The fact that many of the leading proponents of the “natural spillover” hypothesis have been less than forthcoming is undeniable. “Smearing” is two way – for example scientists genuinely concerned with the evidence (including myself) have been repeatedly characterised as “conspiracists”. I have been blocked, on twitter, by many of the leading scientists with views opposing mine, including several with whom I have never directly interacted. This speaks of a curious unwillingness – by one side - to engage in respectful scientific debate.

 

The possibility of future lab-associated pandemics is not trivial

 

There is a possibility, far from trivial, that genetic engineering technology has already, or could soon, lead to novel outbreaks of disease, even to pandemics. COVID-19 may, or may not, be the first such example. This hypothesis is an emerging insight, which, if valid, is at least of equal importance to hand-washing. Its importance can scarcely be over-stated.

 

I have speculated that the ABC’s reluctance to fairly explore the possibility of a laboratory origin for SARS-CoV-2 may be related to a perception that to do so could be perceived as risking re-inflaming Australia’s relations with the Peoples’ Republic of China. [China initiated numerous, extremely punitive trade sanctions, in part triggered by calls by a former Australian prime minister for suggesting the recruitment of independent investigators akin to “weapons inspectors” to determine the source of major disease outbreaks.]

 

However, even if that is the case, there are ways to explore this that are safer, perhaps emphasising the undoubted role that the US has played in funding research into “synthetic” pathogens, including in China. Is the ABC reluctant to offend the US? 

 

More important than either consideration is the health of the global public. The ABC has a duty of care which should lead it to not fully censor this discussion. The partisanship currently displayed by the ABC regarding this issue may in fact add to the undermining of science. 

 

Conclusion

 

Soon after the broadcast of an interview between Dr Norman Swan and Prof. Peter Doherty (concerning the origin) [Prof Doherty, whose original training was as a veterinarian, was recognised for his immunological research with the Nobel Prize in medicine; he has great scientific prestige in Australia] I wrote to the Health Report to complain of the bias of Norman Swan. I have twice (perhaps thrice) asked for Dr Swan to interview someone (eg Prof Richard Ebright) to balance the views of Prof Peter Doherty (who has undeclared conflicts of interest concerning this issue) [including the "Sino-Australia COVID-19 Partnership Program"]. No one from the Health Report has ever responded; this lack of response is the major reason for this formal complaint. The Science Show also should at least allow someone, with a more balanced view, to be interviewed concerning this matter.

 

Yours sincerely

 

Colin

 

Colin D Butler PhD, MSc, BMed, BMed(Sci)(Hons), DTM&H 

Honorary Professor, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Specialty Chief Editor for Planetary Health in Frontiers in Public Health

https://researchers.anu.edu.au/researchers/butler-cdd

 

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2942-5294

 

**

My own publications of relevance:

 

van Helden, Butler et al. (2021) "An appeal for an objective, open, and transparent scientific debate about the origin of SARS-CoV-2" Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02019-5/fulltext

 

United Nations Environment Programme (2022) "COVID-19: A Warning - Addressing Environmental Threats and the Risk of Future Pandemics in Asia and the Pacific" (I am sole author of this 70 page report, with 220 references, which was reviewed by 28 people)

 

Butler (2022) "Comparing and contrasting two United Nations Environment Programmereports on COVID-19" Science in One Health (2022) 

 

Butler (2022) “Gain of function' research can create experimental pathogens, but the risks mean it should be very carefully regulated, if not banned” The Conversation.

 

Butler and Randolph (2023) “There has been a suppression of the truth, secrecy and cover-ups on an Orwellian scale” https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11687597/There-suppression-truth-secrecy-cover-ups-origin-Covid-19-China.html

 

Butler and Lambrinidou (2023) “COVID-19 and the existential threat of scientific hubris” https://biosafetynow.org/covid-19-and-the-existential-threat-of-scientific-hubris/

 

************ 

** One example: the leading Philadelphia obstetrician, Charles D. Meigs, derided Holmes' arguments as the “jejeune and fizzenless dreamings” of a sophomoric writer, and declared that any practitioner who met with epidemic cases of puerperal fever was simply “unlucky.”

 

************ 

 

This is the ABC response, so far:

Thank you for contacting the ABC. The ABC values audience feedback whether supportive or critical and all complaints are reviewed by ABC Audience Support. Your reference number is C22871-23. Please do not respond to this automated email.

 

The ABC receives many thousands of written complaints a year and we need to ensure a common-sense approach when responding. In summary, we will take action when warranted, engage where there is value in doing so, and note criticism of our performance when there is nothing more of substance we can offer. In some cases, including where your complaint relates to a matter of personal taste or preference, you may receive no more than this automated acknowledgement that your complaint has been received.  

 

Complaints about specific ABC content which concern our editorial standards will be noted and may be referred to the content area concerned or retained by the ABC Ombudsman’s Office for further consideration. 

 

Where a further response is provided, the ABC aims to respond to you within the next 30 days. However, please be aware that due to the large volume of correspondence we receive and the complex nature of some matters, responses may take longer than this.

 

The ABC’s complaints process is further outlined on our website.

 

If you would like to contact us again about this complaint, please use the form on our website.

 

Thank you for taking the time to contact us, and for your interest in the ABC.

ABC Audience Support

**

 

On Nov 23, 2023 I received a confidential email from an ABC employee, in response to my complaint. It stated in part, words to the effect that my complaint was reviewed, but rejected.

The tone was reasonably friendly, and it’s better than nothing. The BBC recently published a “puff piece” on Anthony Fauci – I see that as nothing less than UK govt. propaganda. See https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20231130-anthony-fauci-interview-influential-katty-kay

 

Cleaning up a dirty business: the successful campaign (2005-2007) to force the publisher of the Lancet to divest itself from the arms trade

This essay was originally published on the Drs for Environment Australia (DEA) website. See also https://dea.org.au/the-successful-campaign-2005-2007-to-force-the-publisher-of-the-lancet-to-divest-itself-from-the-a-healthy-planet-healthy-people-dea/

Introduction by David Shearman (DEA founder)

"This article should be read in conjunction with the letter posted above. (see https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1939945/). It is an inspiring story of decisions forced upon the recalcitrants by the activism of NGOs and professional organisations. DEA is proud that its Committee members have been involved"

Reed Elsevier and its role in promoting sales of arms and torture equipment

The Lancet was founded in 1823 by the physician, surgeon and activist Thomas Wakley. Wakley envisaged his journal as a vehicle to campaign for social justice and human rights, such as to support the Tolpuddle Martyrs - six agricultural labourers who were sentenced to seven years' transportation for campaigning against a wage cut.1 On the whole, the Lancet has honoured this tradition, including through its pioneering recognition in 1989 that climate change is a health issue.2 Furthermore, the Lancet’s position as a consistent publisher of groundbreaking clinical material has exposed many conservative medical readers to its more subversive material.

In 1991, the Lancet was acquired by the Dutch publisher Elsevier (founded in 1880). Two years after this acquisition, Elsevier merged with the conglomerate Reed International, a pulp and paper manufacturer which had expanded into publishing and other lines. Some time after this – but no later than 2003 - Reed Elsevier got involved with the arms trade, through its subsidiary Spearhead Exhibitions, which hosted one of the largest military exhibitions in the world, called the Defence Systems and Equipment international.3

Reed Elsevier boasted of this 2003 exhibition as a “key event for the total supply chain” of arms.3 Weapons on show included cluster bombs, widely deplored by UN agencies and human rights organisations. By 2006, arms fairs hosted by Reed Exhibitions (note the name change) were run in the United States, the Middle East, Brazil, Germany and Taiwan as well as the UK. The 2006 fair held in the US included the display of torture equipment sold by Security Equipment Corporation, a company whose slogan is ‘Making grown men cry since 1975’.4 Other exhibitors at some of these fairs included manufacturers of electroshock batons, stun guns, and stun belts, items banned by the European Union because their use amounts to torture and other cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment.5

Until late 2005, the editors of the Lancet appear to have been unaware of the unsavoury practices of its owner. They were alerted through a letter which they published in September of that year, signed by representatives from six lobby groups – the Campaign Against Arms Trade, Europeans for Medical Progress, the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), MedAct [the UK affiliate of International Society of Doctors for the Environment (ISDE)], Physicians for Social Responsibility and Scientists for Global Responsibility.6 Accompanying this letter, the Lancet published a strongly critical editorial, imploring its owners to abandon. Unusually, this article was signed by The Lancet and The Lancet’s International Advisory Board.3

Commenting on the cluster bombs that Reed Elsevier was helping to promote, the Lancet wrote:

“Cluster bombs have high failure rates, creating de-facto minefields. Their effects do not discriminate between military targets and civilian populations. They are the worst kind of weapon. The UN Mine Action Strategy specifically includes unexploded cluster bombs in its vision of a mine-free world. UNICEF reported that over 1000 children were injured by unexploded ordnance, including cluster bombs, after the Iraq war in 2003. Human Rights Watch has called for a moratorium on the use of cluster bombs until their civilian effects have been resolved. The Lancet has consistently opposed the use of cluster bombs. It will be incomprehensible to the journal’s readers that our owners are engaged in a business that so clearly undermines not only principles of public-health practice, but also the policies of intergovernmental agencies”.3

In response, Reed Elsevier directors and publicists simply argued that the arms business was legal. Reed Elsevier also claimed to be committed to the “highest ethical standards in all (its) business activities”.7 Graham pointed out the similarities of these with arguments used in 1806 to support the legitimacy, morality and job-creating virtues of slavery.8

However, the main criticism of Reed Elsevier was never that the arms trade is illegal. The real argument was that Reed Elsevier’s involvement with the arms trade compromised the independence and standing of its publishing business. For Reed Elsevier, the crucial question was: to what extent would its involvement in promoting arms (approximately 0.5% of its business) compromise the profitability and value of its suite of medical and scientific journals? (approximately 14% of its business).9

Initially, Reed Elsevier seems to have judged that the protest against its arms business would fade or at worst remain a minor irritant, which could be swatted aside like a mosquito. This decision proved very naïve. Reed Elsevier grossly underestimated the tenacity and conviction of its opposition, particularly among sectors of the health profession. Its responses simply fanned the flames of protest.

However, it has to be said, the distribution of this protest was extremely unequal. Reed Elsevier’s publishing stable includes numerous (probably thousands) of journals other than the Lancet. Its website (http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/subject_area_browse.cws_home/) lists almost 400 sub-disciplines, and it publishes many journals in each of these. It also publishes Australian Doctor and New Scientist. To the credit of its editors, contributors and readers, the campaign against its parent company was fought mainly in The Lancet. I know only of one other Reed Elsevier journal (Political Geography) that was also publicly critical of its owner.10 The issue appears to have been totally ignored by the other Reed Elsevier journals. (Please advise me if you know of any exceptions, especially as to whether this issue was ever reported by Australian Doctor).

Reed Elsevier, ecology and sustainability

In 2005 Reed Elsevier advertised that it was to host an ‘ecosummit’ in 2007 (http://www.ecosummit2007.elsevier.com/). On being invited to submit an abstract for this meeting my response was to argue that any conference concerning sustainability hosted by an organisation involved with promoting arms would be tainted. I wrote to numerous VIPs among the ecological community, whose names were listed as endorsing this meeting, arguing the conference should be boycotted until Reed Elsevier divested themselves from arms promotion.

Readers will be unsurprised that at that time I received virtually no response, and certainly none that was sympathetic. In fact, apart from the editorial in Political Geography [and the involvement of MedAct, Drs for Environment Australia (DEA) and ISDE] the response by the environmental and ecological community response to this campaign has been muted.

For several years I have sensed that the academic ecological community has expressed little understanding or concern for social justice. These doubts grew during my four year long involvement with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.11 To further explore this impression, I analysed one of the two major on-line petitions opposed to Reed Elsevier’s involvement with the arms trade (http://cage.ugent.be/~npg/elsevier/), counting the academic discipline of the petitioners. Of 1915 signatures (this petition is now closed) 33% worked in health, but only 2% worked in ecology or earth sciences. Another 6% were geographers.1 Of course this survey does not prove my suspicion that ecologists are under-represented in such issues, but nor does it alleviate my concerns. I continue to worry that the links between violence, environmental change and sustainability are poorly understood by the ecological community.

2007: the campaign against Reed Elsevier grows

In 2007 the campaign against Reed Elsevier’s engagement with the arms trade continued to build. In early 2007 Reed Elsevier announced that it would stop exhibiting cluster bombs.12 Despite this, opposition continued to swell, embracing increasingly influential individual and groups. In 2007 the campaign spread beyond the Lancet to two other leading journals: the British Medical Journal (BMJ)13 and the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.4 By mid 2007, declared opponents included a former president of the Royal Society, 38 senior staff at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,14 the Royal College of Physicans15 and the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, which sold all of its shares in Reed Elsevier, following three years of critical engagement on the company's role in the arms trade.14

The BMJ editorial provoked eleven e-letters (http://www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/334/7593/547). Almost all of these e-letters opposed the practices of Reed Elsevier, although two argued that the BMJ’s stance was tainted by conflict of interest, in that criticising the Lancet could increase the BMJ’s market share. A couple of others argued defended the legitimacy of arms sales.

The two web-petitions eventually attracted 2024 signatories (a few people signed both petitions). An increasing number of articles appeared in the British press, including one in The Times co-authored by JM Coetzee, a Nobel Laureate in literature.16 One of the petitions was signed by Sir Michael Atiyah, a former President of the UK's Royal Society. Another signatory was Jack Steinberger, a Nobel Laureate in physics.

By the northern hemisphere summer of 2007, Reed Elsevier had had enough. Their decision to withdraw from the arms trade was widely reported in Britain, including in the Lancet 7 and the BMJ.18

The role of lobby groups – including DEA

Many health, peace and social justice lobby groups published letters in the Lancet which appealed for Reed Elsevier to divest itself from its arms businesses. In addition to the six mentioned above6 these organizations included Doctors for Human Rights,5 Doctors for Iraq,19 Medsin (a medical student organization)20 and the People’s Health Movement.21

Drs for the Environment Australia (DEA) members will also be pleased to know that DEA contributed in several ways to this campaign. On behalf of DEA, Bill Castleden wrote directly to Reed Elsevier (this letter received the standard response). DEA representatives also contributed to two letters co-authored by representatives of ISDE, the Medical Association for the Prevention of War (MAPW), MedAct and IPPNW.22,23 One of these letters23 is re-posted on the DEA website, (above) with permission of the publisher, the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine. This letter calls for publishers to declare their conflicts of interest, whether real or reasonably perceived as genuine.

Thousands of individuals were eventually involved in the campaign against the policies of Reed Elsevier. The role of organizations in marshalling this support was vital. Reed Elsevier is a multi-billion dollar business. Corporations such as this can easily dismiss individual protests, but it is much more difficult to ignore the efforts of well-organised and persistent lobby groups and organisations. Individuals can easily burn out. The support which members of groups can provide to each other and to other groups is important to sustain morale and to attract new interest. As the campaign grew, the role of the lay press also became increasingly important.

Lessons for Australia

How would such a campaign have progressed in Australia? My sense is that it is unlikely to have progressed at anything like the same rate. To date, I am unaware of any significant coverage of this issue by the Australian press or academic journals, including the Medical Journal of Australia. In contrast, two recent editorials have been published in leading international journals critical of the muzzling and timidity of Australian expression24 including through the censoring way in which Australian science is funded.25

Australians were once renowned for their larrikinism and questioning spirit, while the British population was bound by conservatism and class structures. The Australian population is now more than one third that of the UK. Yet, my impression is that we now have nowhere near one third of the activists and dissenting intellectuals of that country, some of whom – such as Geoffrey Robertson and John Pilger – are Australian expatriates. The reasons for the recent Australian trend to self-censorship and timidity are complex, and beyond the main scope of this article. But I think they lie partly in the history of post-Aboriginal Australia, and partly in our post World War II alliance with the US. Cut off from motherland of Europe, those of us with European ancestry look to our near North with a curious mix of fear, contempt and fascination. This drives a cultural shift towards the US, where dissent is also difficult. Our dispersal within this vast continent may also hinder the development of clusters of intellectual dissent of sufficient critical mass.

I can’t speak for the increasing proportion of Australians of Asian origin, but I suspect their voice in calling for greater Australian activism for human and environmental rights (including in Asia, such as the current egregious oppression of the people of Burma) is also muted. Perhaps this is in part because they fear or sense an anti-Asian racism, which perhaps might be heightened if they were to challenge the dominant Australian ethos with regard to human rights. Whatever the reasons, I close this essay by appealing for Australians, of all origins, to be more courageous. We need to speak out against the arms trade, the corruption of publishers, and the failure to tackle climate change. We need to think that advancing the sustainability transition might entail at least as many opportunities as risks. Finally, we need to form broad coalitions, within and beyond health. Health needs to link not only with the environmental and peace lobbies but also with those concerned with development, human rights, and all other forms of social justice. The campaign against Reed Elsevier shows that, if we are united and persistent, a great deal can be accomplished.

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